As technology continues to evolve in the area of power consumption, batteries will also become a lot thinner, with the only real barrier being the trade-off between battery size and capacity. Suppliers are already targeting the ID1 card form factor market, since battery capacity is increasing so as to enable better support for emissive display technologies.

For greater security, biometrics will also begin to feature in the next wave of card technology. By using a smart card chip to perform on-card biometric matching, terminals will be able trust both the card and the cardholder–without the need to access an online biometric database. To support this technology, cards could soon have feature a flexible display interface that includes a fingerprint swipe reader.

Another key area for change will relate to energy-harvesting technology and rechargeables, with breakthroughs expected in areas such as the ability to recharge wirelessly, or by using movement, light or temperature effects. Recharging via USB may also be an option. This kind of energy-harvesting technology, especially when combined with printable batteries, will in turn lead to a variety of efficient charging mechanisms for the consumer. At the same time, environmental issues will increasingly play more of a key role in product choice for a growing proportion of customers.

Organics will also begin to make the headlines in the next few years. Organic electronics have a number of advantages over silicon, including printable connections and more flexibility. They are also thinner, lighter, more environmentally friendly, and offer a long-term price advantage. For all of these reasons, we predict that organics will soon be passing silicon as the method of choice for producing low-cost electronics.

Means of data input will also see some new options in the coming years, including printed buttons or areas that use resistive or conductive touch. Although some may wonder about the costs associated with this kind of technology, the incremental cost of a single printed button will be insignificant with regards to long-term production costs, especially in comparison with processing, display and power components.

‘Wait a minute!” I hear you cry, ‘A smart card with a display a and buttons? Isn’t that what I call a cell phone?’ It will be interesting to see whether smart applications shift to inside the handset before these new card technologies gain a foothold.

Clearly, there are potential barriers to many of these developments. Cost is always an issue, as so is size, since the technology will need to physically fit into the envisaged payment form factors. And what about durability? Will the technology survive everyday customer use? Are the power consumption requirements realistic for a three-year lifetime product? And to what extent can the technology be exploited using existing standards and infrastructure?

All of these are valid questions, and will need to be addressed, but in the meantime we need to maintain a “watching brief” on these developing technologies, and to conduct deeper research into tactical opportunities to gain a better understanding of the target markets and likely costs. At the same time, any companies who don’t want to be left behind will need to start organising their business models to ensure that they are best positioned to exploit the strategic opportunities made available by these new and exciting technologies.

John Elliott is Head of Public Sector Practice and a Principal Consultant at UK-based Consult Hyperion.

About the AVISIAN Publishing Expert Panel

At the close of each year, AVISIAN Publishing’s editorial team selects a group of key leaders from various sectors of the ID technology market to serve as Expert Panelists. Each individual is asked to share their unique insight into what lies ahead. During the month of December, these panelist’s predictions are published daily at the appropriate title within the AVISIAN suite of ID technology publications: SecureIDNews.com, ContactlessNews.com,CR80News.com, RFIDNews.org, FIPS201.com, NFCNews.com, ThirdFactor.com, and DigitalIDNews.com.