Mobile wallets are coming, and while mobile network operators are expected to provide the majority of NFC-based wallets, their market share will erode between 2012 and 2016 as Google and Apple enter the market, according to the latest predictions from ABI Research.
ABI’s research study, “Mobile Wallet Strategies,” predicts that NFC-based mobile wallet users will grow to 594 million by 2016, fueled by mobile operators flooding the marketplace with NFC-capable phones, particularly in the U.S., Western Europe, Japan, and Korea. Mobile operators are expected to provide 75% of all mobile wallets in 2012, but, with Apple and Google offering their own mobile wallets, that market share is expected to decrease to 63% by 2016, according to the study.
By the end of 2012, ABI predicts that Google Wallet will have been a hit with consumers. “By 2014, we will see Google Wallets supported alongside competing network operators offerings globally,” adds Mark Beccue, an ABI senior analyst.
Google Wallet is also expected to succeed in markets where monile network operatprs prefer not to spend capital for a mobile wallet infrastructure, says the study. These operators will partner with Google.
Apple, which is expected to launch a mobile wallet next year, will also factor into the erosion of operator’s mobile wallet market share. Apple’s MNO partners will enable Apple to offer their mobile wallet to consumers who have iPhones, regardless of whether or not the MNO has a competing mobile wallet, says Beccue.