Research firm Gartner has placed NFC payments at the peak of the ‘Inflated Expectations’ curve in its 2011 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle.
According to Gartner, The Hype Cycle graph has been used since 1995 to highlight the common pattern of “over-enthusiasm, disillusionment and eventual realism” that accompanies each new technology and innovation.
“Themes from this year’s Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle include ongoing interest and activity in social media, cloud computing and mobile,” said Jackie Fenn, vice president and fellow at Gartner. “Mobile technologies continue to be part of most of our clients’ short- and long-range plans and are present on this Hype Cycle in the form of media tablets, NFC payments, quick response (QR)/color codes, mobile application stores and location-aware applications.”
According to Gartner analyst Sandy Shen, NFC has made the list for the last several years, and the continuous hype surrounding the technology will ensure that it will stay on the list for the next several.
Gartner expects NFC payments to run the full course of the Hype Cycle, from its current position at the height of the hype stage, down into the ‘Trough of Disillusionment,’ eventually emerging up the ‘Slope of Enlightenment’ to the ‘Plateau of Productivity.’
“Our forecast is that it won’t reach mainstream until 2015,” Shen explained. “Afterwards it will gradually mature until it reaches the plateau.”
Shen added that most of the technologies on the Hype Cycle make it to the plateau, although the time this takes varies depending on the market. In the case of NFC, the wait should fall between 5 to 10 years.